May 24, 2012

Report regarding the number of deaths due to illnesses in "Fukushima children" Changes since the Fukushima accident based on the government’s vital statistics data.


By Seiichi Nakate,  Fukushima Network for Saving Children from Radiation

May 14, 2012

It has been over one year since the Fukushima nuclear accident.  However, the government has failed to make efforts to investigate the health effects from the radiation contamination.  The government has excluded Fukushima prefecture from the Patient Survey (*1), and the prefecture’s “Health Management Survey” considers pediatric thyroid cancer as the only health risk possible.  It seems that, without taking adequate measures to prevent damages from occurring, they are spreading a “radiation-is-safe myth” stating “this amount of radiation is not harmful” and trying to bring the children back to “everyday life” little by little.

On the other hand, we get information on the Internet such as “sudden deaths in high school students,” “abnormality such as thyroid cysts,” and “an increase in deaths in Fukushima,” making us worry if the health damages are already occurring.

This report contains changes in the number of deaths due to illnesses in Fukushima children, based on the vital statistics collected and made public by the government’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.  Vital statistics are the collection of births and deaths reported to local governments, and monthly data is available up to November, 2011.  It was determined that this data was reliable even after the earthquake/tsunami disaster and the nuclear accident,with the exception of some specific data (*2).

(*1) Patient Survey
It is a morbidity-related survey of patients in medical institutions in order  to obtain basic information for medical care administration, carried out nationwide, simultaneously, every three years.  Last year (2011) was the survey year, and if Fukushima prefecture hadn’t been excluded, it might have found changes from three years ago or any unusual phenomena  not seen in other prefectures.
(*2) some specific data
Part of data relating to accidental deaths and fetuses, newborns and infants.

The graphs shown below were created from the Fukushima prefecture data in the archival list of “the number of deaths by sex, age (in five-year age groups), and a simple classification of causes of deaths for each prefecture ( with 20 largest cities regrouped).”   This was found in the “monthly report” for 2010 and 2011, obtained from “Government statistics general site: vital statistics (http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/estat/NewList.do?tid=000001028897).”   Data from other prefectures and “annual” data prior to 2010 were also referred to when needed for consideration and comparison.



Comparison of the total number of pediatric deaths due to illnesses

This graph depicts the total number of pediatric deaths (ages 1 to 19) due to illnesses in March through November, 2011, compared to the same time period in 2010.

It has increased by a factor of 1.5 times, but pediatric deaths due to illnesses come in small numbers to begin with, so the absolute number is too small to determine if this is an “unusual phenomenon.”  Similar changes can be seen considerably in past statistics or other prefectures.

Total number of pediatric deaths (ages 1 to 19) due to illnesses in Fukushima,
from March through November of 2010 (blue)  vs. 2011 (pink)

(Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Vital Statistics)

Thus the following graph was created to see the month-to-month changes.

Dynamic changes in the number of deaths due to illnesses

Month-to-month changes in the number of pediatric deaths (ages 1 to 19) in Fukushima from March through November of 2010 (blue) and 2011 (pink)

*The vertical bar graph indicates the number of death for the specific month in blue for 2010 and pink for 2011.
*The line graph indicates the cumulative number of death in blue for 2010 and pink for 2011.
(Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Vital Statistics)

There is a big change in the number of deaths due to illnesses after July.

Ordinarily, there are more deaths due to illnesses in winter and spring; summer and fall tend to see fewer deaths nationwide both for adults and children.

However, in 2011 the number of deaths due to illnesses was large in summer and fall, and there is an almost linear increase in the cumulative number of deaths.

If this tendency were to continue in 2012, the number of pediatric deaths due to illnesses would increase at a fast enough pace to be “statistically significant.”  This type of phenomenon rarely happens in the whole country.  It is not something that is happening in Miyagi or Iwate prefectures.

I cannot help but suspect a possibility that abnormal phenomena have been happening to the health of  Fukushima children since last summer.


The number of deaths due to illnesses by the specific cause of deaths

The number of pediatric deaths (ages 1 to 19) due to illnesses classified by the specific cause of deaths in Fukushima from March through November of 2010 (blue) and 2011 (pink)
From left to right: cancer and leukemia
cardiovascular diseases
infectious diseases
pneumonia
miscellaneous
(Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Vital Statistics)

This graph depicts the number of pediatric deaths classified by the specific cause of deaths.

The number of deaths due to “cardiovascular diseases” has doubled.  (This number includes cardiovascular deaths of children with congenital heart abnormalities.)  This has not been seen in other prefectures which suffered damages from the earthquake/tsunami disaster.  There are also increases in infectious diseases, cancer and leukemia, and pneumonia.

This graph may be no more than just a reference, but I decided to include it in this report along with the second graph showing the increase in the number of deaths since last summer.

There is no doubt that the number of pediatric deaths due to illnesses has increased since last summer.  It was omitted from this report, but there is data available that shows that the increase in the number of deaths was the greatest in late teens.  If this abnormal phenomenon continues on and the causality with radiation contamination were ever to be proven, the lost lives would not come back.

In health damage due to any type of pollution, there are many children who have illnesses or are not feeling well, besides those who died.  I think it is the responsibility of adults to act on preventing even a little bit of radiation damage.  We need to consider convalescence, relocation, protective measures and anything that can be possibly helpful.  In addition, we need to demand the early enforcement of “the alternative to the national Patient Survey” which has been promised by the government.


7 comments:

  1. Using the same database, it seems the biggest increases in child mortality happened in Miyagi and Iwate. Since radioactive contamination was much lower in those prefectures, it would seem that the ultimate cause was the poor living conditions for the tsunami refugees, more than the potential effects from the Fukushima nuclear disaster (which would take at least several years.)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. @ anon
      ".. more than the potential effects from the Fukushima nuclear disaster (which would take at least several years.).."

      thought i would mention that there was a quick rush of thyroid issues after chernobyl,during the first year or so and then a sharp decrease followed by a steady strong increase five years later.. and then either no one had any problems (reference imperial college london and manchester university and WHO) or the people who studied the effects, say lots of cancers and thyroid issues..

      go to the criirad website to see 120,000 cpm in june.. just cesium??
      see chernobyl heart for cesium based problems..

      the effects from this will come in fairly predictable patterns

      reference japan chernobyl foundation (they do the same work as chernobyl heart

      hope that helps to clear that point up!

      Delete
    2. I think the quick rush of thyroid issues after Chernobyl was a result of increased screening. At any given moment, more tests would mean more detections of whatever condition.

      Delete
  2. I believe there are numerous factors involved, very much including radiation exposure. The immune system can only handle so much. When you consider the following contributors, it is easy to see that any immune system would have trouble under the circumstances;

    a) Pain from loss of home and/or loved ones
    b) Shock from accident and existing conditions which would then morph into intense stress and constant anxiety.
    c) In the case of coastal areas outside evac zone, being forced to live in toxic environment contaminated from all the toxics used in buildings, clothing, roads, gardens, farms, industry etc etc which was released primarily from the tsunami.
    d) Fear that nobody really cares (ie Tepco, govt, SDF, corporations, media etc etc) and their future will be worse than it already is and
    e) High levels of radioactive particles taken in daily.

    ReplyDelete
  3. The number of deaths due to illnesses in "Fukushima children" (ages 1 to 19).
    From January, 1999 to November, 2011.
    (Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Vital Statistics)

    http://gyazo.com/a7352f8e4073f10f1141a3e5e5140ea0

    2011:36 (From January to November.)
    2010:24
    2009:38
    2008:28
    2007:25
    2006:30
    2005:40
    2004:50
    2003:46
    2002:67
    2001:55
    2000:74
    1999:57

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The point of this report was not so much the total number but the month-to-month changes of the pediatric deaths due to illnesses since July 2011.

      If you want to make an argument against the premise of this report, you would have to figure out the total number of pediatric deaths due to illnesses from March through November of each previous year and plot the monthly number for a valid comparison.

      Delete
  4. The number of deaths this year seem to be within the normal range, then.

    ReplyDelete